The Denver Broncos (12-3) head to GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium for a Christmas Day game against the Kansas City Chiefs (6-9), streamed on Amazon Prime Video. Denver is looking to respond to its NFL Week 16 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars, a loss that snapped an 11-game winning streak. Kansas City is expected to start Chris Oladokun at quarterback with Patrick Mahomes and Gardner Minshew. Even though the matchup brought less intrigue than originally expected, DraftKings still has an appeal NFL player oddsincluding Bo Nix Anytime Touchdown odds.
Bet365 Prop: Bo Nix Anytime TD (+300)
Bet365 offers +300 odds on Bo Nix to score an Anytime Touchdown against the Chiefs on Christmas Day.
- Nix has already scored four rushing touchdowns often holding the ball in red zone situations this season.
- Dimers predictive model gives Nix a 20% chance to score, which represents value relative to the implied odds.
- Kansas City allowed five rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks tied for third in the league this season.
Note: The odds in this article are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Expert Prediction: Chiefs vs. Broncos
Dimers’ NFL prediction model ran 10,000 simulations for this AFC West matchup and points to a controlled win in Denver, but not a shutout. Simulation project a Broncos 24, Chiefs 12 final score, aligned with a lower-scoring scenario where Denver dictates the pace while Kansas City does just enough to stay within reach.
Best bet: Chiefs +12.5
While Denver owns the matchup edge, the Broncos have struggled to reward punters consistently. They sit at 6-8-1 ATS on the season and have just once in their last five games. With the Dimers projecting a 12-point lead and Kansas City built to shorten games, the +12.5 grip provides a wide cushion in what is shaping up to be a grind-it-out divisional contest.
NFL player breakdowns: Chiefs vs. Broncos
Probability of landing at any time
| Team | Player | Whenever TD probability |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | RJ Harvey | 52.1% |
| Broncos | Courtland Sutton | 35.5% |
| Broncos | Troy Franklin | 24.7% |
| Broncos | Marvin Mims | 22.2% |
| Chiefs | Rashee Rice | 31.0% |
| Chiefs | Kareem Hunt | 25.9% |
| Chiefs | Isiah Pacheco | 24.9% |
| Chiefs | Travis Kelce | 19.1% |
Assumption of leading statistics
Passing on leaders
| Team | Player | Projected Passing Yards |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | Bo Nix | 237 |
| Chiefs | Chris Oladokun | 162 |
Leaders in a hurry
| Team | Player | Projected Rush Yards | Probability of TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | RJ Harvey | 53 | 52% |
| Chiefs | Isiah Pacheco | 40 | 25% |
Hiring leaders
| Team | Player | Projected receiving yards | Probability of TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | Courtland Sutton | 65 | 36% |
| Chiefs | Rashee Rice | 46 | 31% |
Conclusion: Chiefs vs. Broncos at Christmas
Denver remains the most complete team, and the simulations reflect that lead on the scoreboard. Still, the betting value for this prime-time Christmas game on Amazon Prime Video may sit with Kansas City grabbing double digits against a Broncos team that hasn’t covered reliably. For bettors looking beyond the spread, Bo Nix Anytime Touchdown (+300) offers an interesting angle in the game where his mobility can translate to near the goal line.
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